I am not in for the prize, but my guess is the following:

The underlying asset being bitcoin - I forsee it going to 40k in summer, thus unfortunately the timing for this experiment seems bad to me. I am not saying the bear market is over, but it will surely wont last any longer than 1 year (got my money on it).

per by prediction:

40% chance of bitcoin going up - in this case as you mentioned, its clearly a direct correlation between stock price and btc price of some orders of magnitude - thus you will lose money (probably around 500-600$)

30% chance of btc staying the same - this case is complicated as the number of outcomes is impossible to predict - it isnt just about the market conditions. Probably you ll end up at the end of june with a position worth 300$

30% chance of btc going down to 13k - more or less bankrupcy for the company - probably 1500$ in profits

Based on these, I ll speculate the first case as being the most viable - a loss of 500$.

+1654

It will be interesting to see the outcome, any guess is as good as mine

I am not in for the prize, but my guess is the following:

The underlying asset being bitcoin - I forsee it going to 40k in summer, thus unfortunately the timing for this experiment seems bad to me. I am not saying the bear market is over, but it will surely wont last any longer than 1 year (got my money on it).

per by prediction:

40% chance of bitcoin going up - in this case as you mentioned, its clearly a direct correlation between stock price and btc price of some orders of magnitude - thus you will lose money (probably around 500-600$)

30% chance of btc staying the same - this case is complicated as the number of outcomes is impossible to predict - it isnt just about the market conditions. Probably you ll end up at the end of june with a position worth 300$

30% chance of btc going down to 13k - more or less bankrupcy for the company - probably 1500$ in profits

Based on these, I ll speculate the first case as being the most viable - a loss of 500$.