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Sakura's avatar

Nice post. What platform do you use for the PUT options? Any comment on why you picked particularly those options?

Concerning stocks, I would just like to mention that as savings are so low a lot of money appears to be drawn into the market - some companies are still massively overvalued and might stay overvalued (e.g. utilities, pharmacies, etc.). There are risk factors: nobody will ring a bell at the bottom, we do not yet know which companies will survive, if all big ones will be bailed out etc.. In such a crisis there might not apply a "too big to fail". Just remembering the Lehman Brothers (though a different context) . That said, that is not a critic to your article, just my comment.

Warren Buffet - you must be aware that he is a value investor, he does not care much about short-term impact. Consequently you are not betting against his long-term opinion about Delta ;)

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Oliver Xyz's avatar

Jesus, what comments🤣 I hope mine will appear more serious.

First of all the issue is how bad it'll really be, I read a lot about it, my impression is you exaggerate a bit, especially with the lethality rate, the percentage is between 1 and 3 per cent, concerning almost only very old and weak people and those with asthma and similar diseases. But I agree, it's not just a flu.

If you really believe it'll be that bad I'd choose more agressive options. I wanted to buy an agreesive put last friday, finding out that I wasn't allowed to before signing such a stupid paper, as I live in Germany but was in Turkey then and just returned, it's too late. Now I'm not so sure, I guess the best opportunity passed. (50%+ in 3 days, in my case hedging a part of my losses)

For stock-picking your tips are good, I'd like to add other opportunities much less impacted, but who also lost a lot of value: Insurance companies like the German 'Allianz', 'Münchener Rück', 'Swiss Re' or 'Unilever', producing cosmetics, food, etc., always needed.

You are right about airlines, but we should add that the sharp drop in the oil-prices, caused mostly by Russia and Saudi-Arabia will help them on the other hand.

It's a complicated world.

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